- 阅读理解A
题干：Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost$26abarrel,upfromlessthan$10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980，whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged$22abarrelforafullyear,comparedwith$13in1998，thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25%-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies-towhichheavyindustryhasshifted-havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.
题目：We can draw a conclusion from the text that_____. - A 、oil-price shocks are less shocking now
- B 、inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks
- C 、energy conservation can keep down the oil prices
- D 、the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry
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参考答案【正确答案：A】
推理题。第三段首句指出，我们有充分的理由预期这次涨价所带来的经济影响不会很严重。然后在第三、四、五段阐述了三点理由：（1)原油价格只占汽油价格的一小部分；（2)发达国家对石油的依赖性不如从前;（3)此次油价上涨并不在商品价格总体上涨和全球需求过旺的背景下发生。由此可知，A选项是正确答案。
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