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Conditional Probability
Unconditional probability (marginal probability): the probability of this event A, P(A)
Conditional probability: the probability of A, given that B has occurred, P(A | B)
Joint probability: the probability of both A and B happening, P(AB)
Conditional Probability
P(A | B) = P(AB)/P(B), P(B) ≠ 0
Multiplication Rule for Probability
P(AB) = P(A | B)P(B)
208The Total Probability Rule:not-S,the two-quarter period in total.rulejoint probability of both A and B occurring is PAB = PAPB.
168Probability:Random:variable:a quantity whose outcomes possible values;An event is a specified set of outcomes.:timeObjectiveprobability draws on personal or subjective judgment.
214Probability Stated as Odds:Odds against E = [1 − PE]PE,if:successful;calculate the bet’s anticipated profit as follows:Win,Lossprobability of 0.167 for beating sales is odds of 1 to 5.
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